Australia Needs More Workers: The Economic Facts Behind the Migration Argument

News · 2026-09-22 · 4 min read

Calls to cut migration have become a regular feature of Australian politics. Yet the government's own long-term economic projections point the other way: shrinking the intake would not fix the country's problems, it would make several of them worse. Below is a clear breakdown of the figures and what they signal for anyone planning a career in Australia.

Births are falling, and the decline is set to continue

For half a century, Australia's fertility rate has stayed well under the ‘replacement’ level of 2.1 births per woman. It now sits at around 1.5, and official forecasts expect a further drop to roughly 1.34 across the next four decades. The outcome is significant: at some point in the mid-2060s, Australia is expected to record more deaths than births, a first in its modern history.

The current Treasurer has made it clear that the government will not bring back baby-bonus style payments or tell Australians how to plan their families. With that option off the table, migration is the main tool left for policymakers who want the population, and with it the workforce, to keep growing.

How an older population strains public finances

This is a matter of arithmetic rather than ideology. As Australians age, a smaller group of working-age taxpayers must pay for a larger group of retirees who rely on healthcare, pensions and aged care.

The key measure here is the ‘dependency ratio’: the number of people aged 65+ for every 100 Australians of working age. Today the figure is about 27 per 100. Under standard migration settings it is projected to reach 40 by the 2060s. With a reduced migration intake, it rises further still, to 43 per 100.

The budget impact in figures

A thinner workforce carrying more retirees does more than stretch services. It hits the federal budget directly. The modelling inside the government's long-term fiscal projections shows that, in a lower-migration scenario:

the underlying budget deficit widens from 1.8% of GDP, which is already a concern, to 2.4% by 2065-66;
government debt as a share of GDP finishes nearly 10 percentage points higher.

Put simply, the long-term fiscal cost of having too few migrants is far larger than the ‘cost’ of migration that critics like to highlight.

Signals for employers, agents and job seekers

For migration agents, employers and prospective migrants working through Australia's system, these projections are more than abstract Treasury modelling. They show the structural direction of policy, even while short-term politics stays noisy:

Skilled migration is a national economic priority, not an optional add-on. Treasury's baseline planning assumes net overseas migration of well over 200,000 people every year simply to avoid worse fiscal results.
Migrants hold the system up as well as filling gaps. Younger migrants of working age pay tax now, while the ageing citizen population draws more heavily on services.
Multiculturalism and economic strategy are increasingly linked in official language, with migration described as strengthening the economy through skills, innovation and international ties rather than simply adding to population numbers.

What Pakistani job seekers should take from this

Migration turns into an easy political target at every election. The government's long-range modelling, however, makes an awkward point for critics: cutting migration does not relieve pressure on the budget or public services. It speeds up the very demographic squeeze they say they are worried about.

If you are looking at jobs in Australia for Pakistanis, follow this long-term direction rather than the daily headlines. Australia's economic future depends on sustained, well-managed migration, not less of it. Practical preparation still counts: keep an English CV ready, sit an English test (IELTS or PTE) if your visa or employer requires one, and confirm the current emigration requirements with the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment before you travel.

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