Australia's Intergenerational Report: Ageing, Migration and the Outlook for Overseas Workers
News · 2026-09-22 · 4 min read
Most headlines about the latest Intergenerational Report (IGR) have dwelt on deficits. For anyone following migration, the more important message sits further into the document: Australia's government now accepts, in its own long-range modelling, that the country cannot keep itself going without steady, planned immigration. Below, we set out the key points one by one.
A shrinking natural population
According to the official projections, by the 2060s Australia will record more deaths each year than births. This is no longer a fringe view; it is part of the government's formal forecast. The fertility rate has been under replacement level for more than half a century, and the IGR has cut its assumption once more, from 1.62 children per woman in 2023 to only 1.34 by 2065-66.
If nothing offset that trend, Australia would start to resemble Japan, Germany, Italy or South Korea, where economies are already contracting under ageing populations. What keeps Australia off that path is net overseas migration (NOM), which the report assumes at 235,000 people every year for the next four decades. In other words, the whole 40-year economic forecast rests on that single figure.
Younger arrivals, a younger workforce
One detail deserves attention. The median age of a migrant arriving in Australia is 26, compared with 38 for the resident population already there. Migration therefore does more than lift the headcount; it is the strongest single factor slowing the ageing of the workforce as a whole.
Take migration away and the report's expected growth in the working-age group (15–64) does not occur. Australia is among the few developed countries still forecasting a larger labour force by mid-century, and migration supplies nearly all of that growth.
Upbeat projections, one shared assumption
The report's more positive projections include an economy twice its current size by 2065-66, real incomes 55% higher and unemployment levelling out at around 4.25%. Each of these depends on the same intake assumption. If migration were held materially below 235,000 a year, the ageing curve would rise more steeply than those comfortable figures allow. Spending on health and aged care, already identified as a major source of future government costs, would face heavier pressure sooner, with a smaller working-age tax base left to pay for it.
Care work as a growth area
The IGR openly describes a move towards a "care economy". Health, disability support (NDIS) and aged care are all set to grow as the number of people over 65 nearly doubles and the over-85 group nearly triples. These fields have long relied heavily on migrant workers, from frontline care staff to the wider health workforce. Should demand develop as forecast, skilled and semi-skilled migration routes into care occupations are likely to move from the edges to the centre of Australia's visa settings.
The intake question at election time
This is where the tension lies. The IGR treats 235,000 NOM a year as its baseline, while both the Coalition and One Nation have campaigned on reducing the migration intake to well under that level. The government's economic modelling and the opposition's proposed policies are pulling in opposite directions.
Migration advisers, employers who depend on skilled visa pathways and intending migrants should therefore keep an eye on one thing over the coming election cycles. The 39.3 million population projection matters less than whether the intake settings behind it survive domestic political debate.
Summing up the report's message
Put simply, Australia's official 40-year economic outlook is a migration story with economics added. The report does not hedge: it states that migration gives Australia a "demographic resilience" that its ageing peers lack. The real uncertainty is not whether migration stays central, but whether political support for the intake levels the modelling relies on lasts through the next few elections.
A practical note for Pakistani applicants
If you are researching jobs in Australia for Pakistanis, especially in care-related fields, the sensible approach is to follow policy announcements rather than assumptions. Keep an English CV up to date, be ready to sit an English test such as IELTS or PTE if a visa or employer asks for one, and, before travelling, check current emigration formalities with the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment.
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