Australia's Intergenerational Report Explained: Population, Skills Demand and What It Signals for Overseas Workers

News · 2026-09-28 · 4 min read

Every three years, the federal government projects 40 years into the future to estimate what Australia will look like. The newest Intergenerational Report (IGR) is clear on one point: much of the country's future growth will come from people who decide to migrate there.

Population Trends in Brief

Birth rates in Australia are falling. The IGR expects the fertility rate to drop to 1.34 births per woman by 2065–66, well under the 1.62 assumed in the previous report. By the 2060s, deaths are projected to exceed births for the first time.

Despite this, the population is still expected to reach 39.3 million by 2065–66. Net overseas migration makes up the gap, with the report assuming a long-term average of 235,000 people a year. According to the report, this gives Australia "demographic resilience" compared with Germany, Italy and South Korea, where deaths already outnumber births.

The value of a younger intake

The median age of a recent migrant is about 26, against 38 for the existing resident population. This difference is a major reason why Australia's working-age population (15 to 64) is expected to keep expanding while many similar economies see theirs decline.

Ageing remains a significant trend overall:

the median age is projected to rise from 38.6 to 45 by 2062–63;
the number of Australians aged 65+ will almost double;
the number aged 85+ will almost triple.

An older population needs more health and aged care, and those jobs must be filled by someone.

Sectors Set to Need Skilled People

The IGR describes several forces that are changing the economy, and each one points to skills that will be in demand:

Care and support services. Ageing increases the need for nurses, aged care workers, allied health professionals and disability support staff.
Clean energy. With a net zero target of 2050, Australia aims to become a "renewable energy superpower" through critical minerals, green hydrogen and green metals. This requires engineers, technicians, trades and project specialists.
AI and digital transformation. The report states that the effects of artificial intelligence remain uncertain, but it will change which skills are most valued and how work gets done.
Services. Growth is expected to continue moving towards services, which benefits professional, technical and people-facing skills.

Long-Term Economic Projections

Mainly because of ageing, growth is expected to slow from roughly 3% a year to roughly 2%. Even so, the economy is forecast to be more than twice its present size by 2065–66, with real per capita income up 55%. Life expectancy is projected to reach 89.5 years for women and 86.1 for men.

For anyone thinking of migrating, this describes a stable and wealthy economy with a strong public health system and long lifespans. The report is also open about the pressures, including housing affordability for younger people and growing government spending.

Why the Migration Figure Is Not Fixed

The 235,000 figure is an assumption, not a commitment. Both the Opposition and One Nation have said they would aim for much lower migration if they win government. Migration settings, visa categories and priorities can change with each government and budget.

That is why preparation and timing count. Rules and occupation lists change, so working from current information with a well-prepared application can make a real difference.

Action Points for Workers in Pakistan

Look at long-term demand, not just today's shortages. Focus on the areas the report expects to need people for years, such as care, energy and technology.
Expect policy to change. Always check the current visa requirements instead of depending on older rules.
Begin your preparation early. Skills assessments, English tests and documents all take time.

If you are researching an Australia work visa from Pakistan, a sensible starting kit is an English CV, IELTS or PTE results if required, and a police character certificate if one is requested. Before departure, complete Pakistan's emigration formalities, including registration with the Protector of Emigrants, and check the latest requirements with the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment. The report's message is open to workers of every nationality: Australia's future workforce will rely on people who arrive prepared.

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