NOM and Your Australian Visa: A Clear Briefing on the Migration Number Every Party Is Debating
News · 2026-08-26 · 5 min read
Whether you are aiming for a student visa, a skilled visa or a working holiday in Australia, one term now shapes much of the policy talk: NOM, or Net Overseas Migration. Australian political parties quote it constantly, argue over it and rarely define it the same way. If you are researching an Australia work visa from Pakistan or any other country, knowing what NOM measures, and why it matters so much right now, will help you interpret the visa changes that may follow.
NOM Defined, Without the Spin
The basic idea is straightforward. NOM counts people who arrive in Australia and stay for at least a year, then subtracts people who leave to live overseas. The detail behind that headline is more involved than political speeches suggest.
The 12/16-Month Counting Method
Australia applies a 12/16-month rule. A person does not need to stay for 12 months without a break. Instead, they count toward NOM if they spend 12 months living in Australia within any 16-month period, even when that time is split over several visits. For example, a student who flies home for a month-long trip and then returns is still counted, as long as their total time in the country reaches the threshold.
It Is Not Only About Foreign Nationals
NOM also includes Australian citizens and permanent residents coming home, plus New Zealanders moving across the Tasman. These groups travel largely without visas, so no government can easily control their numbers through visa settings. Other points to note:
- Diplomats and their families are left out completely.
- Short-term workers under arrangements such as the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program, which brings farm workers from the Pacific for placements that can last only a few months, may or may not be counted. It depends entirely on how long the placement runs.
Forecasts Versus Actual Arrivals
The latest data shows NOM at roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025. That is well down from the post-pandemic peak of around 556,000 in 2023, yet still clearly higher than the government's own projections. Treasury expects the figure to fall to 225,000 by the 2027–28 financial year, but its forecasts have repeatedly come in below the real result in recent years.
This gap explains why NOM has become so politically charged. Announcing a target is one thing; reaching it is another when much of the movement comes from returning citizens and New Zealanders rather than from people affected by visa policy.
Arrivals by Group, 2024–25 Financial Year
| Group | Approximate arrivals |
|---|---|
| International students (mostly in higher education) | 157,000 |
| Skilled visa holders (permanent and temporary combined) | 86,000 |
| Working holiday-makers | 78,000 |
| Australian citizens returning home | 64,000 |
| New Zealand citizens | 53,000 |
| Family reunion visas | 24,000 |
| Humanitarian visas | just under 15,000 |
Students formed the largest single group. Returning Australians and New Zealand citizens sit almost wholly outside the reach of visa policy.
Party Positions Compared
All the major parties now promise a lower figure, but the clarity of each pledge differs a great deal.
One Nation’s Position
One Nation has publicly set a NOM target of 130,000. Its messaging has not been consistent. A newer MP suggested the party's "real" figure, once PALM workers and aged care nurses were added back, could be nearer to Treasury's 225,000 forecast. Senior party figures then withdrew those remarks and restated 130,000 as the official position. Areas marked for cuts include graduate visas, international student numbers and a narrower skilled migration list.
The Coalition’s Position
The Coalition has not committed to a firm number. It links any future cap to the pace of housing construction, with suggestions that the figure could end up below 200,000. One senator proposed 180,000, aimed at working holiday, student and selected skilled visas. Other party figures quickly distanced themselves from that suggestion, especially because many regional and rural employers rely on working holiday-makers for seasonal labour.
Labor’s Position
Labor has in effect taken Treasury's projection of 225,000 by 2028 as its working target. Its focus is enforcement rather than broad visa cuts: making sure temporary visa holders depart when their visas end, and slowing the processing of working holiday and skilled visa applications in the meantime.
Action Points for Applicants From Pakistan and Elsewhere
For anyone considering jobs in Australia for Pakistanis or other overseas workers, the headline NOM number matters less than the visa categories being targeted. Keep the following in view:
- Categories under scrutiny: student visas, graduate visas, working holiday visas and parts of the skilled visa list.
- What may change first: processing times, eligibility criteria and annual caps in these streams are more likely to move in the near term than family reunion or humanitarian intake.
- How to read targets: actual migration has often drifted far from government projections, so treat any announced "target" as a signal of direction, not a guarantee.
- Where to focus: follow the policy detail as it is published rather than the political rhetoric around it.
Planning ahead also helps. Keep an English CV ready, sit an English test (IELTS or PTE) if your visa or employer requires one, and confirm current emigration formalities with the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment before you travel.
#net overseas migration #nom australia #australia migration policy #australian visa changes #skilled migration australia #international student visa australia #working holiday visa australia #australia immigration 2026 #labor migration policy #coalition migration policy #one nation migration target #australia visa caps #palm scheme australia #australia population growth #migrate to australia 2026